{"id":418,"date":"2025-03-12T01:38:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-12T01:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hhdealer.com\/blog\/?p=418"},"modified":"2025-09-12T09:38:43","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T08:38:43","slug":"case-study-series-blind-defense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hhdealer.com\/blog\/case-study-series-blind-defense\/","title":{"rendered":"Case Study Series: Blind Defense"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The battle for blinds is at the core of online poker. Every pot begins with forced money in the middle, and how aggressively players fight for or defend it defines much of the game\u2019s profitability. Solvers make it clear that defending blinds is essential\u2014folding too often hands the opener free equity. Yet poker mining and datamined hand histories<\/a> consistently reveal that regulars, even at mid-stakes, under-defend, particularly from the small blind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the disciplined grinder, this tendency is gold. By adjusting open-raising frequencies based on population data, you can exploit this under-defense to build a steady profit stream without ever seeing a flop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Step 1: What Theory Says About Blind Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In GTO simulations, the small blind is supposed to defend around 35\u201340%<\/strong> of hands against a button open, and the big blind closer to 55\u201360%<\/strong>. These ranges include a mix of 3-bets, calls, and folds, balancing aggression with protection. The idea is simple: if you fold too often, the button can profitably open wider and print money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Step 2: What the Data Reveals<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Datamined hand histories tell us that the population does, in fact, fold too often\u2014especially from the small blind. Instead of defending the theoretical 35\u201340%<\/strong>, many regs defend only 25\u201328%<\/strong>. The big blind fares slightly better but still under-defends relative to solver benchmarks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why does this happen?<\/p>\n\n\n\n