Post-Flop Strategy as the Pre-Flop Aggressor
When you raise before the flop and opponents call, you become the pre-flop aggressor. This position gives you initiative, but your decisions after the flop depend heavily on the type of hand you hold. Every post-flop hand generally falls into four categories:
- Premium Made Hands (strong, valuable hands)
- Marginal Made Hands (okay hands, but not strong enough to play big pots)
- Draws (hands that can improve to strong ones)
- Junk (weak hands with little to no value)
A hand may move between these categories as community cards are revealed. For example:
- A draw can turn into a premium hand when completed.
- A top pair may start premium but shift to marginal if an overcard arrives.
- Even junk (like a low pocket pair) can upgrade to premium if it hits a set.
1. Premium Made Hands
Definition: Top pair with a good kicker or better (two pair, sets, strong overpairs).
Premium made hands should be played aggressively because you want to build a big pot with your strongest holdings.
In No-Limit Hold’em, the main way to play a big pot is by betting. However, a “premium” hand isn’t simply any hand better than middle pair.
Sometimes top pair with a weak kicker is premium, other times it’s not.
Generally, premium hands are top pair with a good kicker or better.
Goal: Build the pot → these hands win big pots.
Strategy:
- Bet across all streets (flop, turn, river).
- Extract maximum value.
- But re-evaluate if dangerous cards arrive (e.g., draws complete, or higher overcards fall).
Example:
- Holding Q-8 on a Q-7-5 flop is often good enough to bet all the way.
- With A-A on a safe board (K-7-2 rainbow), you can confidently value bet multiple streets.
- But on draw-heavy boards (9-8-7), even A-A must be played carefully.
The goal with premium hands is to bet all three streets when appropriate. If the board changes unfavorably—such as when an overcard appears or a draw completes—downgrade your hand and adjust your play accordingly.
2. Marginal Made Hands
Definition: Hands that are decent but not strong enough for big pots. Includes:
- Top pair with a weak kicker
- Middle/bottom pairs
- Sometimes even ace-highs
Marginal made hands are those that are strong enough to win small pots but not strong enough for large pots. These usually range from bottom pair up to top pair with a weak kicker, and sometimes include strong Ace-highs.
To avoid building a large pot with a marginal hand, the best strategy is to check. Betting usually forces out weaker hands, and when called, you’re often up against a hand that beats you. Aggressive opponents may also raise, pushing you into difficult decisions. By checking, you keep your opponent’s range wide and can call if they bet, often maximizing your equity.
Many players are hesitant to check decent hands for fear of being outdrawn, but the risk is small. Checking allows weaker hands to remain in the pot, improving your long-term results.
Goal: Control pot size → you don’t want to play for stacks with these.
Strategy:
- Check often instead of betting.
- Call small bets, but avoid inflating the pot.
- Re-evaluate strength on later streets:
- A safe turn card can upgrade marginal → premium (e.g., top pair holding up).
- A dangerous card can downgrade marginal → junk.
Example:
You raise with Q-J, the flop comes K-J-5:
- If you bet, opponents mostly fold worse hands and continue with better → bad outcome.
- By checking, you induce bluffs, keep weaker hands in, and protect your equity.
Your plan with marginal hands is to check the flop and reassess on the turn. If the turn card is safe, your best marginal hands may become premium, allowing you to bet for value. If it’s a bad card, weaker marginal hands become junk.
Takeaway: Checking marginal hands may feel passive, but it actually maximizes value long-term by keeping you ahead of weaker ranges.
3. Draws
Draws can be strong or weak depending on the number of “outs” (cards that improve your hand)
Be precise when counting outs—don’t double-count cards that complete both straight and flush draws. For instance, a flush and straight draw together usually provides 15 outs, not 17.
Not all outs are equally valuable, and sometimes even if you hit your draw, you might not win the hand. A quick rule: multiply your outs by 4 to estimate your chance of hitting by the river, or by 2 for the next card.
When facing bets, remember your opponent’s range may include better made hands or stronger draws. Against tough ranges or when the pot odds are marginal, fold weak draws.
In general, bet strong and marginal draws, especially when you have fold equity, but check behind if your draw has showdown value or your opponent is unlikely to fold. Always consider your opponent’s full range, not just one possible hand.
3.1. Strong Draws (12+ outs)
- Combo draws (straight + flush, plus overcards).
- Often have 50%+ equity vs one-pair hands.
- Play aggressively: bet/raise, use fold equity to your advantage.
- But don’t overcommit on boards that strongly favor your opponent’s range.
3.2. Marginal Draws (8–9 outs)
- Flush draws or open-ended straight draws without extras.
- Still playable but rely more on implied odds (winning big when you hit).
- Bet when you have fold equity, but fold if facing massive raises.
3.3. Junky Draws (<8 outs)
- Gutshots or weak backdoor draws.
- Often not worth chasing unless conditions are ideal (e.g., cheap price + implied odds).
- Can occasionally be turned into semi-bluffs, but fold against aggression.
Key Math Shortcut:
With two cards to come: $$\text{Equity}\simeq\text{outs}\cdot4\%$$
With one card to come: $$\text{Equity}\simeq\text{outs}\cdot2\%$$
Example:
- A flush draw (9 outs) = ~36% chance with two cards to come.
- A gutshot (4 outs) = ~16% chance with two cards to come.
Strategic Notes:
- Consider not just “how many outs” but “what kind of outs.”
- Example: Completing a weak flush may still lose to a higher flush → dangerous.
- Draws can also act as bluffs, especially when missed on the river, to balance your range.
4. Junk Hands
Definition: Hands with little to no chance of improving (e.g., weak bottom pairs, no draws, or pure air).
Your junk range includes everything from the weakest hands up to bottom pair, depending on the board. For example, 4-2 is marginal on 7♠-6♥-4♦ but junk on 7♠-6♠-4♠. Similarly, 5-5 can handle a bet on 9-8-7, but not on A-K-Q. Even King-high might be marginal or junk, depending on the situation. The easiest way to identify the top of your junk range is to look at your marginal hands and determine which aren’t strong enough to call a flop bet—those are junk.
With junk hands, your standard play is to check and fold to aggression. However, if you sense weakness on later streets, you can bluff with junk. To keep your river betting range balanced, you should bet both your premium hands and some junk hands as bluffs.
Strategy:
- Check and usually fold to bets.
- Sometimes bluff on later streets if the opponent’s range looks weak.
Key Role: On the river, some junk hands can be used as bluffing hands to keep your betting range balanced.
Summary of Strategy
When to Bet:
- Premium made hands (for value).
- Draws (for equity + fold equity).
When to Check:
- Marginal made hands (to control pot size and induce mistakes).
- Junk (to fold later, or occasionally bluff).
The Hidden Benefit: By mixing bets and checks across these categories, your opponents cannot easily put you on a specific type of hand. This ambiguity forces mistakes, which is where you gain profit.
Big Picture Takeaway:
As the pre-flop aggressor, you’re not just betting automatically. You’re strategically dividing your range:
- Build pots with your strongest hands and draws.
- Control pots with medium-strength hands.
- Give up with trash unless a bluff opportunity arises.
This balance keeps your strategy unpredictable and maximizes long-term winnings.
